As the world's attention was diverted to the Wars, EU leaders seized the opportunity to reform financial regulations, ultimately aiming to erode the European middle class.
Behind the scenes, EU leaders convened to reassess their priorities, akin to rearranging the deck chairs on a sinking ship. As the world's attention was focused on their decisions to support Ukraine and Israel, they quietly worked to comply with the new budgetary framework.
In the shadows, the components of a draconian, even biblical, system were being stealthily put in place.
This development takes on added significance in light of the Federal Reserve's stringent monetary policies and the potential shift towards fiscal conservatism in the US, under the new House Speaker, Mike Johnson.
The impending expiration of the Maastricht Treaty's budget regulations in January will usher in a new era of austerity measures for the EU's 28 member states. In essence, this means adhering to strict targets, capping budget deficits at 3% of GDP and maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio below 60% - with France being the notable exception.
A recent European Commission summit in Brussels sparked intense debate on a pressing issue: how to navigate the budget regulations without alienating remaining investors. The original rules were put on hold due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which, in my opinion, was a deliberate strategy to dismantle the European middle class. From an EU policy perspective, the pandemic was a crisis designed to necessitate a predetermined solution: consolidating Europe's finances under the European Commission and European Central Bank's authority.
This investment strategy has been partially successful, with the European Commission granted limited authority to issue pandemic loans within the €800 billion COVID-19 recovery fund. The first instalment of these loans, known as SURE bonds, marked a significant step towards bolstering fiscal measures. It appears that efforts are being made behind the scenes to align these bonds with market standards, potentially to attract more investors, at the expense of the original investors who bought in when ECB rates were at -0.6%.
As global attention was diverted by the Wars, European Union leaders capitalized on the opportunity to reform financial regulations, ultimately aiming to erode the economic power of the European middle class and pave the way for a return to a feudal-like system.
Behind the scenes, EU leaders reassessed their priorities, much like rearranging deck chairs on a sinking ship, while publicly proclaiming their support for Ukraine and Israel. Their true focus, however, was on conforming to the new budgetary framework.
This development takes on added significance in the context of the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policies and the potential shift towards fiscal conservatism in the US, under the new House Speaker, Mike Johnson.
The motivations behind Powell's rate hikes are open to interpretation. While some believe he intentionally sought to dismantle the middle class and pave the way for the World Economic Forum's proposed Great Reset, a more nuanced view recognizes the complexities of global dynamics that cannot be reduced to simplistic narratives of malicious intent. The European Union's exploitation of Powell's assertive US dollar strategy for its own interests does not necessarily imply his direct involvement.
The tendency to attribute every event to a grand, orchestrated plan reveals a reluctance to confront the intricate nature of human actions, which often defy simplistic explanations.
However, it is undeniable that the release of bonds such as SURE and NGEU during a period of heightened political influence and disruption coincided with the Davos Forum and the EU's efforts to exert power in the post-Trump era and potentially undermine Powell's bid for re-election as FOMC Chair.
As we approach late 2024, it is surprising to find ourselves in the current situation, even considering the significant influence wielded by powerful individuals. Notably, if central banks are the primary purchasers of these bonds, the rising yields will accelerate their financial insolvency, depriving them of essential capital, as exemplified by the recent capital injection required at The Bundesbank.
The fiscal disunity plaguing the European Union, exacerbated by Italy's struggles to rein in its spending despite relying on external funding, has created a sense of urgency for increased cooperation among member states. This pressing need is further underscored by the decline in bond prices, which has led to a rapid depletion of central banks' balance sheets.
As the true extent of bond devaluation becomes apparent through their trade values on European stock exchanges, it will become clear that the EU's policies have pushed its members to the brink of desperation, paving the way for genuine fiscal integration. This development is expected to trigger a surge in bond prices.
The underlying strategy appears to be one of controlled financial destabilization, aimed at forcing individuals to the edge of collapse and thereby ensuring their compliance with the proposed plan. Furthermore, those with remaining financial resources will be able to capitalize on discounted assets, reaping substantial profits.
A fundamental paradox lies at the heart of this issue. Despite the EU Commission's dissatisfaction, SURE and NGEU bonds continue to be traded at yields significantly higher than those of similar German bonds. The latest report submitted to the EC paints a bleak picture of the market's evolution.
The lack of fiscal unity remains a significant weakness for the EU compared to the US, perpetuating investor anxiety and undermining confidence. While Lagarde and the EC strive to provide stability, they face a substantial hurdle in the form of the European public, who have never fully accepted being governed by unelected Brussels-based bureaucrats. The ultimate goal of SURE and NGEU bonds is to establish a genuine central EU borrower, but without direct taxation powers, an AA+ rating does not guarantee a bond's financial viability.
This explains the persistence of the Ukrainian conflict. The need for an active conflict goes beyond merely concealing defaults or imposing strict capital controls; it also serves to prompt the US to take unilateral action in addressing this conflict.
France's decision to provide support to Gaza raises questions about its underlying motivations, prompting a closer look at the driving forces behind this move.
The flaws inherent in the euro are at the heart of the issues with the Maastricht rules. The lack of a unified tax and spending authority across borders means that the European Central Bank's interest rate policy unfairly burdens countries with lower labour productivity, leading to unintended consequences.
In countries like Greece and Italy, the strong euro puts local traders at a disadvantage compared to their German counterparts, resulting in persistent trade deficits and a transfer of wealth from these countries to Germany. This phenomenon is similar to the situation in the US, where the uniform interest rate system has historically favoured states like California over those like Mississippi, despite the fact that blue states effectively subsidize red states.
Germany's benefit from the euro was disrupted by Powell's rate hikes, which prioritized American economic interests over those of Germany and China. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has consistently pushed for stricter fiscal discipline, while France and Germany have engaged in discussions that may put other European countries at a disadvantage.
This is reminiscent of situations where seemingly ill-conceived legislation is introduced and passed, ultimately harming small countries and businesses. The recent rate increases by Powell have driven up the costs of obtaining or managing dollars, causing frustration among those affected, including Lagarde, who had sought to issue nearly a trillion dollars in COVID relief bonds at 0% interest.
As the world's enthusiasm for combating Climate Change wanes, global investors are hesitant to commit to large-scale investments without the backing of the Federal Reserve, which has led to doubts about the EU's stability. The EU's appeal has diminished, much like a stale fish or an unwelcome guest.
In this global financial structure, the Bank of Italy operates under the ECB's authority, but the ECB itself is beholden to the Federal Reserve. This is why Powell's position holds significant sway. The potential rise of Mike Johnson as Speaker could bring about positive outcomes, potentially slowing the rush towards financial chaos by focusing on specific spending bills and restoring genuine negotiations in Congress. However, this may just be hopium. We see with Joe Biden, where he vacantly stumbles around in his geriatric state, there is a total inability to do anything about the situation. So the same goes all of American politics.
However, this scenario also adds another layer of complexity to the ongoing conflicts between central banks, posing serious risks and concerns about the state of affairs by the end of the year. The escalating actions of Israel in Gaza and Ukraine, pose a significant threat, and the United States appears to be shifting blame, reminiscent of the post-9/11 era, in order to instigate a desired conflict, this time targeting Iran and Russia.
Meanwhile, the European Commission is pushing to replace individual sovereign bonds with unified bonds, aiming to initiate fiscal integration this winter to stay competitive with the US and China for global investment. If successful, this move would signify their intention to present a united front to European investors, potentially outlasting Powell, while also hoping for congressional supporters in the US to initiate a war with any available target.
This strategy aims to maintain more favourable bond spreads compared to the US, particularly as the US descends into chaos and becomes a reality TV spectacle, with influential figures like Davos pulling out all the stops for attention.